The European Commission’s enlargement strategy, presented on October 6, proposes enhanced rule-of-law monitoring for new EU members for up to 15 years after accession. The plan aims to prevent democratic backsliding and avoid situations like Hungary under former Prime Minister Viktor Orban.

Hungary and Poland exposed weaknesses in Article 7 of the EU Treaty. The procedure allows sanctions for serious breaches of EU values, but unanimity among member states has prevented its final stage. Hungary and Poland protected each other from sanctions.

Under the new proposal, the EU could suspend funding and, in extreme cases, voting rights of new members through qualified majority voting. Existing members would remain subject to Article 7’s unanimity requirement, creating different rules for older and newer members.

Meanwhile, experts warn that monitoring alone cannot guarantee lasting reforms. Slovakia’s recent changes to its anti-corruption institutions and public broadcaster also show how democratic backsliding can emerge long after accession.

The safeguards would also link EU funding to reform commitments before membership. Montenegro could become the first country to face the new rules if it joins the EU in 2028. The proposed 15-year monitoring period would then run until 2043.

The Commission also hopes the safeguards will reassure EU voters ahead of accession treaty ratification. A spring 2026 Eurobarometer survey found that 53% of EU citizens support enlargement, while opposition remains strong in countries such as France.

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